MLB / mlb / live
LAD 3 / COL 4LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
COLColorado Rockies41%
at Coors Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEmmet Sheehan
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
COLHome starterRyan Feltner
LAD59%ML -303
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
COL41%ML +244
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.5 pts
Market has LAD at 73.8% implied, model at 58.6% — a 15.2pp gap screaming market is right. Coors (PF 1.47) with Sheehan's 10.80 ERA in 3.1 IP is a real disaster setup for LAD pitching. Model total of 9.56 vs market 11.0 is a 1.44 run miss; Coors park factor dominates here. Take LAD and lean over.
Large model-market gapextreme park
Projection Context
Projected margin1.5
Projected total9.6
Market total11.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-303 / +244LAD / COL moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.0O -118 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total