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OAK 6 / CLE 12
OAKOakland Athletics39%
CLECleveland Guardians61%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJacob LopezConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
OAK39%ML +155
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE61%ML -187

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.2 pts

Model (61.4%) and market (62.7%) essentially agree on Cleveland, so no comparison to press but the side is defensible: OAK at 3.3 RPG and .512 OPS faces Bibee (1.18 WHIP, 4.16 ERA). Model's 8.69 total sits well above the 7.5 line; with a neutral park (0.98) and Oakland's offense, I lean under rather than follow that gap.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K5.4
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 fanduel / U -130 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.561%
O 5.544%
O 6.530%
O 7.518%
O 8.510%
O 9.55%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K5.1
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 fanduel / U +110 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -187OAK / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total