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CHW 6 / CLE 7
CHWChicago White Sox49%
CLECleveland Guardians51%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterChris MurphyConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260914_auto
CLEHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
CHW49%ML +130
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CLE51%ML -157

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time11.0 pts

Market implies 57.6% home while model has CHW at 53.4% — an 11-point gap I side against. Griffin's 3.65 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 162.7 IP comparison Martin's 4.05/1.31, and Progressive Field's 0.98 park factor is mildly suppressive. Model's 9.80 total sits 1.3 runs above the 8.5 line with no clear driver, so under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total10.4
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chris MurphyCHW starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.534%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.56%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanatics / U +120 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+130 / -157CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -108 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total