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SFG 1 / CLE 0
SFGSan Francisco Giants39%
CLECleveland Guardians61%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterMatt WilkinsonConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
SFG39%ML +190
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE61%ML -230

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.5 pts

Market implies 65.9% on CLE vs model 61.3%; I side with the market here given Messick's 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over 142 IP against a SFG offense at 3.1 RPG. Wilkinson is a fallback line, so the total is the shakier read, but a quality home starter, weak visiting bats, and a 0.98 park factor point under the 7.5 rather than the model's 8.42.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matt WilkinsonSFG starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.3Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.563%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.524%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K5.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +108 fanduel / U -124 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.529%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.510%over
O 9.55%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+190 / -230SFG / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -103 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total