MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / CLE 5SFGSan Francisco Giants39%
CLECleveland Guardians61%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline61%Model 20260817_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
SFG39%ML +175
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE61%ML -208
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -133 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.566%under
O 4.548%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.9Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betmgm / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.594%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.578%over
O 6.566%over
O 7.553%over
O 8.540%over
O 9.528%over
O 10.519%over
O 11.512%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+175 / -208SFG / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -2 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total