MLB / mlb / live
KCR 3 / CLE 0KCRKansas City Royals49%
CLECleveland Guardians51%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterMichael WachaConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260824_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
KCR49%ML +117
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CLE51%ML -137
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael WachaKCR starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 10 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -154 fanduel / U +124 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.565%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%over
O 7.510%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.52%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 betonlineag / U -109 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+117 / -137KCR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total