MLB / mlb / live
SDP 7 / CLE 5SDPSan Diego Padres39%
CLECleveland Guardians61%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline61%Model 20260810_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
SDP39%ML +100
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CLE61%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 bovada / U +125 fanatics3 books at this line
Model over 3.572%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K8.0Actual 5 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +126 fanduel / U -140 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 7.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.588%over
O 5.579%under
O 6.567%under
O 7.553%under
O 8.540%under
O 9.529%under
O 10.519%under
O 11.512%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120SDP / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -114
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total