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NYMNew York Mets52%
CLECleveland Guardians48%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
CLEHome starterFoster GriffinConfirmed
NYM52%ML +107
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CLE48%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap5.8 pts

Market is essentially pick'em (home -111) while CLE's offense is the weak link: 3.3 RPG and .600 OPS against NYM's 4.5 RPG and .736 OPS. Griffin (3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) is fine but McLean's 10.6 K/9 gives the Mets the strikeout comparison. Both starters under 3.50 ERA plus a neutral-to-slightly-suppressive park (0.98) argues under 7.5; the model's 8.83 looks too high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K6.0
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betmgm / U +116 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.554%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Foster GriffinCLE starter / home
Projected K5.7
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -129 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.591%
O 3.580%
O 4.566%
O 5.549%
O 6.534%
O 7.522%
O 8.513%
O 9.57%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+107 / -125NYM / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -108 / U -112
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total