MLB / mlb / live
NYM 6 / CLE 2NYMNew York Mets46%
CLECleveland Guardians54%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline54%Model 20260803_auto
CLEHome starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
NYM46%ML +116
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CLE54%ML -136
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -118 betrivers / U +108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%under
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+116 / -136NYM / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total