sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

ARI 0 / CLE 5
ARIArizona Diamondbacks49%
CLECleveland Guardians51%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMerrill KellyConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
ARI49%ML +155
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CLE51%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.4 pts

Model sees coin flip (50.9%), market leans CLE hard at 59.3%. ARI's 6.7 RPG offense is league-best but Williams' 3.71 ERA and 11.34 K/9 in 133 IP is legit. Model's 9.44 total vs market 7.5 is a 2-run gap—systematic miss on elite starter in pitcher park. Kelly's 4.86 ERA supports runs but Progressive Field (0.98 PF) and Williams' strikeout stuff argue under market total.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 fanduel / U +104 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -119 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.540%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -185ARI / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total