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MIN 3 / CLE 1
MINMinnesota Twins41%
CLECleveland Guardians59%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MINAway starterTaj BradleyConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline59%Model 20260720_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
MIN41%ML +123
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CLE59%ML -148

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.0 pts

Model at 59% vs market 57% on CLE is minimal comparison. Both pitchers strong (Williams 4.0 ERA, Bradley 3.85, both 10+ K/9) but model projects 8.78 total vs market 7.5—a 1.28 gap. SHAP shows home strikeouts driving total down but away launch angle driving up. With full season data (103 games each) and neutral park, lean model's over but low confidence given market efficiency.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Taj BradleyMIN starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -156 fanduel / U +125 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanduel / U +117 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 6.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.580%over
O 5.567%over
O 6.552%over
O 7.538%over
O 8.526%over
O 9.517%over
O 10.510%over
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+123 / -148MIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total