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scheduled
ARIArizona Diamondbacks55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterMitch BrattProbable
Model pickARI moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeProbable
ARI55%ML +120
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability43%Selected moneyline pick
CLE45%ML -145

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.7 pts

Model has ARI at 55.2%, market also 55.2% via -129/+119 odds—no comparison on side. Bratt's 6.32 ERA in 15.2 IP is shaky but CLE offense is league-worst at 4.0 RPG. Model total 9.59 vs market 8.5 is a 1.09 gap; SHAP shows home pitcher xwOBA driving total up. Lean over 8.5 given ARI's 5.9 RPG and model's structural read.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Mitch BrattARI starter / away
Projected K3.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.584%
O 2.565%
O 3.544%
O 4.526%
O 5.513%
O 6.56%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -145ARI / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total