MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / CLE 5MINMinnesota Twins45%
CLECleveland Guardians55%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterKendry RojasConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
CLEHome starterParker MessickConfirmed
MIN45%ML +130
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CLE55%ML -155
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kendry RojasMIN starter / away
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.577%over
O 2.553%under
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 fanatics / U -115 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -155MIN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total