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PIT 3 / CLE 5
PITPittsburgh Pirates37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterMason MontgomeryConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260713_auto
CLEHome starterLogan AllenConfirmed
PIT37%ML -105
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CLE63%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts

Both pitchers are fallback substitutes (Logan Allen and TBD). Model shows CLE at 55.6% vs market's 50% toss-up, but with no actual pitcher data, this comparison is illusory. Model total of 8.84 runs sits 1.34 over market's 7.5, likely because it's not capturing the actual starter matchup. Hard pass until lineups clarify.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total8.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Mason MontgomeryPIT starter / away
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Logan AllenCLE starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%over
O 3.540%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -112PIT / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -113
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total