MLB / mlb / live
CHW 7 / CLE 6CHWChicago White Sox44%
CLECleveland Guardians56%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterChris MurphyConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
CHW44%ML +114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
CLE56%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chris MurphyCHW starter / away
Projected K2.3Actual 1 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.567%under
O 2.541%under
O 3.521%under
O 4.59%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +125 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.589%under
O 3.577%under
O 4.561%under
O 5.544%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+114 / -136CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total