MLB / mlb / live
scheduledPITPittsburgh Pirates38%
CLECleveland Guardians62%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterJared JonesProbable
Model pickCLE moneyline62%Model 20260713_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsProbable
PIT38%ML +108
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CLE62%ML -128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.596%
O 3.590%
O 4.581%
O 5.568%
O 6.554%
O 7.540%
O 8.527%
O 9.518%
O 10.511%
O 11.56%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+108 / -128PIT / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total