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CHW 5 / CLE 6
CHWChicago White Sox48%
CLECleveland Guardians52%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHWAway starterDavis MartinConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline52%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterSlade CecconiConfirmed
CHW48%ML +100
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
CLE52%ML -118

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.5 pts

Model likes CLE at 52.5% vs market's 48.4%, but CHW has vastly superior offense (6.1 RPG, .729 OPS vs 3.5/0.600). Martin's 3.00 ERA over 93 IP is legitimate; Cecconi's 4.18 ERA with 6.97 K/9 is vulnerable. Model picking the worse offense against a better pitcher triggers offense_defense_mismatch. Lean CHW. Total 9.11 vs market 8.5 suggests over in neutral park.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Davis MartinCHW starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 bovada / U +108 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.589%under
O 3.576%under
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Slade CecconiCLE starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -140 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+100 / -118CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total