MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / CLE 4CHWChicago White Sox42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony KayConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
CHW42%ML +110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CLE58%ML -132
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Anthony KayCHW starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 fanatics / U +112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +124 fanduel / U -133 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.570%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.542%under
O 8.530%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -132CHW / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total