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TEX 4 / CLE 2
TEXTexas Rangers56%
CLECleveland Guardians44%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterJacob deGromConfirmed
Model pickTEX moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
TEX56%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CLE44%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.7 pts

Model predicts 9.28 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.78 gap triggering total_far_from_market. deGrom (3.55 ERA, 10.76 K/9) vs Bibee (3.78 ERA) in pitcher-friendly Progressive (PF 0.98) argues under. Model's moneyline TEX @ 55.96% aligns with market -116 (53.7%). Lean TEX but structural miss on total reduces confidence.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanatics / U +105 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%over
O 6.545%over
O 7.532%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +130 draftkings / U -145 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-125 / +105TEX / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total