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TEX 4 / CLE 9
TEXTexas Rangers47%
CLECleveland Guardians53%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TEXAway starterMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
CLEHome starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
TEX47%ML +104
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CLE53%ML -124

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
MacKenzie GoreTEX starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +106 betonlineag / U -117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.537%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Joey CantilloCLE starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 fanduel / U -113 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+104 / -124TEX / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total