MLB / mlb / live
SEA 5 / CLE 6SEASeattle Mariners47%
CLECleveland Guardians53%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterEmerson HancockConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
CLEHome starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
SEA47%ML +104
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CLE53%ML -125
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Emerson HancockSEA starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -130 betonlineag / U +111 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+104 / -125SEA / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total