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scheduled
DETDetroit Tigers57%
CLECleveland Guardians43%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterStarter TBD
Model pickDET moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterStarter TBD
DET57%ML -110
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CLE43%ML -108

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.2 pts

Model has DET at 57% but market is a pick'em (CLE -106). Both pitchers sub-3.50 ERA with strong K rates argues under. Model's 9.23 total is 2+ runs above market's 7.0—likely overweighting DET's 5.5 RPG in small sample. Ace matchup + pitcher park supports under, not model's inflated total.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Lines
Casey MizeDET starter / away
Projected K4.0
Best price at 3.53.5O -165 draftkings / U +140 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / home
Projected K7.1
Best price at 6.56.5O -132 betrivers / U +116 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 6.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.597%
O 3.591%
O 4.582%
O 5.570%
O 6.556%
O 7.542%
O 8.529%
O 9.519%
O 10.512%
O 11.57%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -108DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -116 / U -104
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total