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DET 2 / CLE 3
DETDetroit Tigers59%
CLECleveland Guardians41%

at Progressive Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterJack Flaherty
Model pickDET moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
DET59%ML +105
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CLE41%ML -125

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap11.9 pts

Model likes DET at 58.6% vs market's 46.7% — a 12-point gap. Top SHAP feature is away launch angle driving both side and total. Flaherty's 5.31 ERA/1.58 WHIP vs Bibee's 4.09/1.23 argues for CLE, not DET. Model over 9.16 vs market 8.5 reasonable given DET's 6.3 RPG. I lean DET lightly on road offense metrics but lack conviction against market pricing.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.4
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Lines
Jack FlahertyDET starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +135 bovada / U -160 betmgm3 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Tanner BibeeCLE starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +132 fanduel / U -152 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -125DET / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total