MLB / mlb / live
NYY 8 / CLE 4NYYNew York Yankees42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterCarlos Rodón
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
NYY42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CLE58%ML -119
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts
Model likes CLE 58% but market has it 52%, nearly a coin flip. Rodón's 2.88 ERA in only 25 IP (2.5 starts) is thin data; Messick's 2.40 in 75 IP is more trustworthy. NYY offense (5.4 RPG, .692 OPS) substantially better than CLE (3.5 RPG, .600 OPS). Ace matchup flag present but Rodón sample too small to trust; lean NYY on offense comparison, over 8.0 on model's 8.87.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -119NYY / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.3 (+148)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -117 / U -102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total