MLB / mlb / live
BOS 9 / CLE 4BOSBoston Red Sox40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
BOS40%ML -103
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
CLE60%ML -115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.9 pts
Model predicts 9.08 runs vs market 7.0 — a 2-run gap flags structural miss. CLE offense anemic (2.3 RPG, .600 OPS) despite 34-26 record. Suarez stats null but BOS offense strong (5.2 RPG, .736 OPS). Model overconfident on CLE; market coin flip feels right. Lean BOS, lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-103 / -115BOS / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total