MLB / mlb / live
BOS 9 / CLE 4BOSBoston Red Sox40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBOSAway starterRanger Suarez
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
BOS40%ML -103
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CLE60%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.6 pts
Model predicts 9.08 runs vs market 7.0 — a 2-run gap flags structural miss. CLE offense anemic (2.3 RPG, .600 OPS) despite 34-26 record. Suarez stats null but BOS offense strong (5.2 RPG, .736 OPS). Model overconfident on CLE; market coin flip feels right. Lean BOS, lean under on inflated total.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-103 / -115BOS / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-190)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -102 / U -120
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total