MLB / mlb / live
WSN 2 / CLE 3WSNWashington Nationals40%
CLECleveland Guardians60%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedWSNAway starterPJ Poulin
Model pickCLE moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
WSN40%ML +154
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CLE60%ML -184
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.7 pts
Market has CLE at 62.9%, model at 60.2%. Both pitchers have tiny samples (5.0 IP each) with poor ERAs (5.4 and 7.2). WSN offensive comparison is real: 5.2 RPG and .820 OPS vs CLE's 3.7/.600. Model's CLE lean contradicts WSN's superior offense. Total at 9.0 vs market 8.0 seems right given weak pitching.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+154 / -184WSN / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+116)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -119
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total