MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / CLE 3TBRTampa Bay Rays42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterDrew Rasmussen
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterGavin Williams
TBR42%ML +100
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CLE58%ML -120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.8 pts
Model has CLE at 57.5% vs market 51.7%, predicts 8.82 runs vs market 6.5. Williams' 5.4 ERA in 5 IP is tiny sample; Rasmussen's 1.8 ERA more credible. TBR offense (.802 OPS) >> CLE (.600 OPS). Model overweights CLE's short-window statcast. Lean TBR and under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.8
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -114 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total