MLB / mlb / live
TBR 3 / CLE 2TBRTampa Bay Rays57%
CLECleveland Guardians43%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterSteven Matz
Model pickTBR moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
TBR57%ML +118
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CLE43%ML -140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.7 pts
Model favors TBR at 57.4% vs market's 44% (inverted from -135), a notable gap. Messick has 10 starts but no stats recorded—likely fallback or incomplete data. Matz's 7.20 ERA and 3.6 K/9 screams regression candidate, yet TBR's .802 OPS and 4.6 RPG offense is substantially better than CLE's .600 OPS. Model leans TBR by ~1 run; market disagrees. I lean TBR but cautiously given Messick's data hole.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -140TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+151)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -105
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total