MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / CLE 0TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick Martinez
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
TBR55%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CLE45%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.0 pts
Model projects 9.12 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Martinez has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP); Bibee's 5.4 ERA in only 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Progressive Field is neutral (0.98 PF). Market at TBR +117 (52.2% implied) nearly matches model's 55.2%, so no moneyline comparison. Lean TBR on better offense (.802 OPS vs .600) but pass confidence given pitcher uncertainty.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+112 / -136TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total