MLB / mlb / live
TBR 1 / CLE 0TBRTampa Bay Rays55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedTBRAway starterNick Martinez
Model pickTBR moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
TBR55%ML +112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
CLE45%ML -136
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap10.2 pts
Model projects 9.12 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.6-run gap flags structural miss. Martinez has no resolved stats (null ERA/IP); Bibee's 5.4 ERA in only 5.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Progressive Field is neutral (0.98 PF). Market at TBR +117 (52.2% implied) nearly matches model's 55.2%, so no moneyline comparison. Lean TBR on better offense (.802 OPS vs .600) but pass confidence given pitcher uncertainty.
Large model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+112 / -136TBR / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -112
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total