MLB / mlb / live
HOU 5 / CLE 8HOUHouston Astros42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterRyan Weiss
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
HOU42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE58%ML -143
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.7 pts
Weiss has 1.0 IP this season—functionally no data. Model overweights his walk rate in that single inning. CLE implied at 58% vs market 57% is negligible comparison. Total model at 9.1 vs market 8.5 reflects Weiss uncertainty; lean over given HOU's 4.5 RPG and lack of pitcher track record.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -143HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total