MLB / mlb / live
HOU 5 / CLE 8HOUHouston Astros42%
CLECleveland Guardians58%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterRyan Weiss
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterParker Messick
HOU42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CLE58%ML -143
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.5 pts
Weiss has 1.0 IP this season—functionally no data. Model overweights his walk rate in that single inning. CLE implied at 58% vs market 57% is negligible comparison. Total model at 9.1 vs market 8.5 reflects Weiss uncertainty; lean over given HOU's 4.5 RPG and lack of pitcher track record.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -143HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -108
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total