MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / CLE 0HOUHouston Astros37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter Lambert
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
HOU37%ML +118
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CLE63%ML -140
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts
Lambert's fallback data (1.0 IP, 9.00 ERA) provides no real signal; likely an emergency starter or recent callup. Model is high on CLE (62.9%) vs market (56.8%), but pitcher uncertainty dominates this matchup. Bibee's small sample (5.0 IP over 10 starts suggests injury/rotation issues) adds more noise. Can't responsibly take a position without knowing who's actually pitching for HOU.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+118 / -140HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total