MLB / mlb / live
HOU 2 / CLE 0HOUHouston Astros37%
CLECleveland Guardians63%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterPeter Lambert
Model pickCLE moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterTanner Bibee
HOU37%ML +118
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CLE63%ML -140
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#12
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap6.9 pts
Lambert's fallback data (1.0 IP, 9.00 ERA) provides no real signal; likely an emergency starter or recent callup. Model is high on CLE (62.9%) vs market (56.8%), but pitcher uncertainty dominates this matchup. Bibee's small sample (5.0 IP over 10 starts suggests injury/rotation issues) adds more noise. Can't responsibly take a position without knowing who's actually pitching for HOU.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -140HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total