MLB / mlb / live
HOU 9 / CLE 2HOUHouston Astros55%
CLECleveland Guardians45%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer Arrighetti
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterSlade Cecconi
HOU55%ML -105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CLE45%ML -115
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.7 pts
Away pitcher data is fallback quality and home pitcher Cecconi has 12.46 ERA in just 4.1 IP this season. Model predicts 9.06 runs vs market 7.5, a 1.56 run gap flagged as structural miss. Market has this as coin flip; with unreliable pitcher data on both sides, no comparison exists.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -115HOU / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total