MLB / mlb / live
BAL 4 / CLE 8BALBaltimore Orioles59%
CLECleveland Guardians41%
at Progressive Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterTrevor Rogers
Model pickBAL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CLEHome starterJoey Cantillo
BAL59%ML +100
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CLE41%ML -118
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.4 pts
Model has BAL 58.6% vs market's 48.3% (CLE -112), a major disagreement. Rogers' 0.00 ERA in 7.0 IP is tiny sample noise. Cantillo's 3.2 IP sample equally worthless. Model predicts 9.0 runs vs market 7.0—likely overweighting small-sample offensive stats. Fade the model's total confidence; lean CLE on market price.
Large model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total6.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -118BAL / CLE moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -118 / U -104
31 books29 ML24 run line21 total