MLB / mlb / live
LAD 4 / CIN 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers54%
CINCincinnati Reds46%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
LAD54%ML -220
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN46%ML +180
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tarik SkubalLAD starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 9 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -120 bovada / U +105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%over
O 7.543%over
O 8.531%over
O 9.521%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +121 draftkings / U -132 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-220 / +180LAD / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total