sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

LAD 4 / CIN 0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers61%
CINCincinnati Reds39%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline61%Model 20260914_auto
CINHome starterRhett LowderConfirmed
LAD61%ML -245
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
CIN39%ML +200

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.0 pts

Yamamoto (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) against a .629 OPS Cincinnati lineup is the dominant feature here; Lowder's 5.81 ERA and 1.53 WHIP keep LAD live for offense. Market implies 67.5% for LAD versus the model's 61.4%, so no side value, but the pick is correct. Model's 9.69 total sits well above the 8.5 line despite a neutral park (0.997) and a clear pitching mismatch, so I lean under.

Projection Context

Projected margin2.0
Projected total9.7
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -118 fanduel / U -105 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.541%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.519%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -113 draftkings / U -108 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-245 / +200LAD / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -113 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total