MLB / mlb / live
SDP 3 / CIN 7SDPSan Diego Padres57%
CINCincinnati Reds43%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterCasey MizeConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline57%Model 20260831_auto
CINHome starterBrandon WilliamsonConfirmed
SDP57%ML -162
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CIN43%ML +137
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Casey MizeSDP starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -106 draftkings / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Brandon WilliamsonCIN starter / home
Projected K3.5Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +130 betonlineag / U -129 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%over
O 4.527%over
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-162 / +137SDP / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total