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SDP 5 / CIN 0
SDPSan Diego Padres50%
CINCincinnati Reds50%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterMichael KingConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
CINHome starterBrady SingerConfirmed
SDP50%ML -151
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CIN50%ML +130

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.9 pts

Model has CIN at 50.2% while the market implies 42.4%, and the starter gap favors San Diego: King at 3.23 ERA / 1.17 WHIP over 156 IP versus Singer at 4.72 ERA / 1.42 WHIP. SDP also carries the better record (72-65). Park is neutral at 0.997, so the model's 9.87 total looks high against a 9.0 line; slight under lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Michael KingSDP starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betonlineag / U +106 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -130 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%under
O 6.531%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-151 / +130SDP / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total