MLB / mlb / live
STL 3 / CIN 0STLSt. Louis Cardinals57%
CINCincinnati Reds43%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterKyle LeahyConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
STL57%ML -120
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CIN43%ML +102
Projection Context
Projected margin1.0
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kyle LeahySTL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 bovada / U -123 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%over
O 5.543%over
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 bovada / U -126 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +102STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -117
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total