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STL 4 / CIN 5
STLSt. Louis Cardinals54%
CINCincinnati Reds46%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
STL54%ML +120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN46%ML -141

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.3 pts

Market has CIN at 57.9% while the model gives STL 54.4% — a large gap, and the pitching matchup favors the market: Burns at 2.47 ERA, 10.37 K/9, 1.09 WHIP versus Liberatore at 5.07 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. CIN's 2.8 RPG and .629 OPS temper conviction, but I'll take the starter comparison in a neutral park (PF 1.00). Burns plus a weak home offense argues slightly under 8.5.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -114 betrivers / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.549%over
O 6.534%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+120 / -141STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -104 / U -116
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total