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MIA 7 / CIN 1
MIAMiami Marlins47%
CINCincinnati Reds53%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterEury PérezConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
MIA47%ML -125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
CIN53%ML +106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.1 pts

Model picks CIN despite worse record (59-63), 3.4 RPG and .629 OPS versus Miami's 4.5 RPG and .774 OPS - the offense/defense mismatch flag is doing real work here. Perez (3.39 ERA, 9.87 K/9, 1.11 WHIP) is clearly the better starter over Lodolo (4.86 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). Neutral park plus Cincinnati's weak bat argues under 8.5 against the model's 8.88.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eury PérezMIA starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -111 fanduel / U +101 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%over
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -114 betrivers / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%under
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-125 / +106MIA / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -116
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total