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STL 5 / CIN 6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals43%
CINCincinnati Reds57%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline57%Model 20260817_auto
CINHome starterRhett LowderConfirmed
STL43%ML -121
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CIN57%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.9 pts

Model has CIN at 55.9% vs market 46% — an 10-point gap on the team with the worse record (59-64) and far worse offense (3.2 RPG, .629 OPS vs STL's 5.2/.812). Lowder's 5.15 ERA and 1.48 WHIP don't support that. Taking STL, but the away starter is a fallback placeholder, so the total is unreliable and confidence is capped.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 fanduel / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Rhett LowderCIN starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +117 draftkings / U -138 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-121 / +105STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -107 / U -114
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total