MLB / mlb / live
MIA 0 / CIN 1MIAMiami Marlins44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy AlcantaraConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260810_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
MIA44%ML +102
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CIN56%ML -119
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -138 fanduel / U +114 betrivers3 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%under
O 3.580%under
O 4.565%under
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -104 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+102 / -119MIA / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total