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scheduled
PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterMitch KellerConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
PIT42%ML +120
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CIN58%ML -140

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.2 pts

Model and market perfectly align at 58.4% CIN. Burns (2.40 ERA, 10.22 K/9 in 112.7 IP) is significantly better than Keller (4.83 ERA). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires but CIN has the pitching comparison. Total at 8.49 vs market 8.5 is effectively consensus; lean under given Burns' form and neutral park.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.580%
O 3.563%
O 4.544%
O 5.528%
O 6.516%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.576%
O 5.562%
O 6.547%
O 7.533%
O 8.522%
O 9.513%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -140PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total