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PIT 2 / CIN 10
PITPittsburgh Pirates42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterMitch KellerConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
PIT42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN58%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.0 pts

Model and market perfectly align at 58.4% CIN. Burns (2.40 ERA, 10.22 K/9 in 112.7 IP) is significantly better than Keller (4.83 ERA). offense_defense_mismatch flag fires but CIN has the pitching comparison. Total at 8.49 vs market 8.5 is effectively consensus; lean under given Burns' form and neutral park.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Mitch KellerPIT starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 draftkings / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 fanduel / U +117 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%over
O 8.521%over
O 9.513%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+118 / -140PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total