MLB / mlb / live
PIT 4 / CIN 1PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
CINCincinnati Reds46%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
PIT54%ML -120
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CIN46%ML +100
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 betrivers / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +129 draftkings / U -136 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%under
O 2.592%under
O 3.581%under
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-120 / +100PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total