sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterPaul SkenesProbable
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterHunter GreeneProbable
PIT46%ML -126
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CIN54%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap7.5 pts

Model favors CIN 54.1% vs market 45.3% — an 8.9pp gap flags market_disagreement_large. PIT has better record (55-55 vs 51-57) and offense (.710 OPS vs .629), yet model picks CIN; this triggers offense_defense_mismatch. Greene's 7.06 ERA in 21.7 IP is worrying despite 12.05 K/9. Skenes (3.65 ERA, 120.7 IP) is the superior pitcher. Defer to market; lean PIT.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Paul SkenesPIT starter / away
Projected K7.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.596%
O 3.591%
O 4.581%
O 5.568%
O 6.554%
O 7.540%
O 8.528%
O 9.518%
O 10.511%
O 11.56%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Hunter GreeneCIN starter / home
Projected K6.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.596%
O 3.590%
O 4.580%
O 5.567%
O 6.553%
O 7.539%
O 8.527%
O 9.517%
O 10.510%
O 11.56%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-126 / +105PIT / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total