sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CLE 0 / CIN 2
CLECleveland Guardians51%
CINCincinnati Reds49%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
CINHome starterCaleb FergusonConfirmed
CLE51%ML -145
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CIN49%ML +122

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

Home starter is TBD with fallback stats; no market data to calibrate against. CLE's Gavin Williams (3.78 ERA, 11.11 K/9) is solid but facing an unknown pitcher at neutral Great American Ball Park (0.997 PF). Model leans CLE 55.2% on -0.69 margin, but without knowing CIN's actual starter or market context, cannot form a defensible view.

pitcher data fallbackmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 bovada / U +110 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.539%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%over
O 11.56%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Caleb FergusonCIN starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-145 / +122CLE / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total