MLB / mlb / live
CHC 5 / CIN 3CHCChicago Cubs52%
CINCincinnati Reds48%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterJavier AssadConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline52%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
CHC52%ML -102
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CIN48%ML -116
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Javier AssadCHC starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -104 draftkings / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +118 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%under
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-102 / -116CHC / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total