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PHI 5 / CIN 11
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PHIAway starterAlan RangelConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
CINHome starterChase BurnsConfirmed
PHI44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CIN56%ML -142

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.4 pts

Away pitcher is TBD/fallback (10 GS, 2.28 ERA is team average). Burns is legit (2.40 ERA, 10.69 K/9 in 97.7 IP) but no market context to gauge PHI's actual starter or assess comparison. Model leans PHI 53.5% on substitute data. Without knowing who actually pitches, cannot evaluate moneyline or total.

pitcher data fallbackace matchupmarket data missing

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Alan RangelPHI starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -130 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.9Actual 2 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +122 fanduel / U -127 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 7.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%under
O 3.590%under
O 4.580%under
O 5.567%under
O 6.552%under
O 7.538%under
O 8.526%under
O 9.517%under
O 10.510%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+120 / -142PHI / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total