MLB / mlb / live
BAL 2 / CIN 3BALBaltimore Orioles44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedBALAway starterKyle BradishConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
BAL44%ML -118
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CIN56%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Kyle BradishBAL starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -109 betonlineag / U -105 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -103 betonlineag / U -102 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.542%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-118 / -102BAL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -117 / U -104
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total