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BAL 3 / CIN 0
BALBaltimore Orioles44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterTrevor RogersConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260629_auto
CINHome starterBrady SingerConfirmed
BAL44%ML -125
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CIN56%ML +104

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap9.0 pts

Model has CIN 55.9% vs market 47.1% — an 8.8pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Both pitchers are mediocre (Singer 5.12 ERA, Rogers 4.99 ERA) with full samples, park neutral. Model's moneyline comparison lacks structural justification; BAL's superior offense (4.6 RPG vs 3.6, .662 OPS vs .629) argues for the market. Lean under 10.0 given model total 9.46 and no ace pitching to suppress scoring.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.3
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trevor RogersBAL starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -132 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -145 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-125 / +104BAL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total